No matter how many major events intervene, and god knows there have been several, the state of this year’s presidential election doesn’t seem to be changing.

Vice President Kamala Harris follows earlier President Donald Trump by one percentage point in the latest national Fox News poll, 49-50%.

Last month, she was also behind Trump by one point, 48-49% – as was President Joe Biden, with the same result of 48-49%.

Between these two investigations, there was an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention was held, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio was selected as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she was certified as the Democratic presidential nominee, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was selected as her running mate. , and they held several promotional events with record attendance.

Yet the horse race looks the same. Here’s why:

By one percentage point, more Democrats support Harris (94%) than Republicans Trump (93%), while the small subset of independents favor him by 8 points.

Trump keeps 95% of his backers in 2020 and Harris carries 93% of 2020 Biden supporterswhile new voters (those who have not voted in the last four general elections) shared 49% each. Last month, new voters preferred Trump over Biden by 7 points.

There is a 22-point gender gap, as men favor Trump by 12 points and women favor Harris by 10 points.

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Trump’s best groups include men, white evangelical Christians, rural voters and white men without college degrees.

For Harris, it’s women, black voters, those under 30 and college graduates. Her numbers among each of those groups are slightly higher than Biden’s were in the July head-to-head against Trump, but they generally lag behind what Biden got closer to Election Day 2020.

The new poll also shows that those living in union households favor Harris by 10 points, while voters who have served in the military favor Trump by 22 points.

Biden-Trump double haters (those with unfavorable views of both) favor Harris by 41 points, but the small group of Harris-Trump double haters favor Trump by 15 points.

In the expanded presidential poll, Harris and Trump received 45% each, while support for Kennedy is at 6%. All others are at 1%. Support for RFK has declined from 10% in July and a high of 15% in November 2023. Seven percent of those who support Harris in the head-to-head matchup defect to third-party candidates compared to 9% of those who favor Trump.

Harris has an edge on the important measure of personal likability. She is 3 points underwater, viewed favorably by 48% of voters and unfavorably by 51%. Trump is 6 points underwater, 47-53% – his best rating in more than four years. In fact, ratings for both candidates have improved since last month, when Harris’ net rating was negative 10 and Trump’s was negative 12.

By contrast, Biden’s favorability rating is currently 23 points underwater, 38-61% — his worst since before he was named former President Obama’s running mate in 2008.

Walz is the only candidate with a net positive rating, as 41% view him favorably and 39% unfavorably, while 16% say they have never heard of him. Vance is underwater by 13 points (38-51%) and 9% are unfamiliar with him. Twice as many Republicans have an unfavorable view of Vance (21%) than Democrats have of Walz (10%).

Equal numbers of those who prefer Harris and Trump say they are extremely motivated to vote this year (68% each). Last month, Trump supporters (66%) were 5 points more likely than Biden supporters (61%) to say they were extremely motivated.

In May, Biden supporters were split between saying their vote was “for” him and “against” Trump (51-48%). That has changed with Harris in the race, as 63% of her supporters describe their vote as “for” her. For Trump supporters, it’s always been about voting for him (71% in May, 77% now).

Harris bests Trump by 7 points in being seen as honest and trustworthy (48% vs. 41%) and by 5 points in having empathy (49% vs. 44%). She leads by 8 points on having the mental health to be effective as president (58% to 50%). Trump has a 5-point lead in being seen as a strong leader (52% to 47%).

Nearly half think Harris’ positions on the issues are “too liberal” (45%) and the same number see Trump as “too conservative” (45%), while about the same number think each candidate’s positions are “about right” (43-45 %).

Only 28% assess the economic conditions positively. Still, that’s an improvement from the 19% who felt that way in August 2022 — and only a point away from where things stood in the early days of Biden’s term, when 29% said the economy was in good shape.

On a personal level, 43% assess their financial situation positively – the largest number in over two years. But it is worse by 10 points compared to Biden’s first year (53% positive).

Majorities keep on giving economics (73%) and their personal financial situation (57%) negative ratings.

The economy is clearly the top priority for voters, as 38% say it will be the most important issue in their vote for president. Next come immigration and abortion, tied at 14% each, with every other issue tested in the single digits.

By a 6-point margin, more voters trust Trump to handle the economy than Harris. He had double-digit advantages over Biden on the economy in three of the last four Fox News polls. Voters also give Trump the nod on handling border security (with 19 points), immigration (+14), foreign policy (+7) and crime (+5).

Harris is seen as better on climate change (with 18 points), abortion (+16), health care (+10) and uniting the country (+5). Neither candidate has a clear edge on gun policy (Trump +3) or Supreme Court nominations (Harris +3).

The partisans’ priorities are completely different. Most Republicans will vote on the economy (49%) or immigration (25%). There is a wider range of priorities among Democrats, with the economy (25%) and abortion (24%) at the top of the list, followed by health care (11%), election integrity (10%) and climate change (9%). For independents, the economy is the dominant issue (44%), followed by immigration, abortion, health care and election integrity (all clustered near 10%).

FOX NEWS INVESTIGATION: HARRIS, TRUMP BOUND IN PENNSYLVANIA

Poll pourri

Seven in 10 voters think the political debate in the country today is “overheated and dangerous,” with more blaming Republicans (44%) than Democrats (28%).

Seventy-four percent of voters say it is extremely or very important to have Harris-Trump debates, a 10-point increase from the number who felt that way about Biden-Trump debates in May. Three-quarters of both Democrats and Republicans say debates are important, as do two-thirds of independents.

35 percent are satisfied with the country’s direction, up from a Biden-era low of 24% in August 2022. However, that 11-point improvement is still 10 points below the 45% who were satisfied with Biden’s 100-day mark.

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Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is viewed more negatively than positively by 17 points (37-54%). In August last year he was in positive territory with 3 points (46-43%).

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Conducted August 9-12, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,105 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (129) and mobile phones (704) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (272). Results based on the entire sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can affect the results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure that the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight goals include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and polling data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.