Press release – Centrist New Zealand

In short

• NIWA’s failure to include historical storm data in climate risk analysis is a big story.
• Accurate information is needed to prepare for extreme weather such as Cyclone Gabrielle, which caused 11 deaths.
• Investigative journalist Ian Wishart previously warned of NIWA’s incomplete records.
• The government must hold NIWA accountable to prevent future disasters.

Why does this matter?

Shouldn’t the failure of a government agency to properly plan for extreme weather events that killed 11 people, including a toddler, and caused billions in damage, result in at least a formal investigation—if not prosecution?

It had consequences in 1995 when 13 students and a DOC manager plunged 30 meters to their deaths on rocks when a viewing platform above Cave Creek gave way. In that inquiry, DOC management and the conservation minister who bore Westminster responsibility for the failings in his department resigned.

Accountability was demanded in 2008 when six Elim College students and a teacher were swept to their deaths in a flash flood during an outdoor life course held in a ravine in the central North Island by the Sir Edmund Hillary Outdoor Pursuits Center (OPC). The tragedy was reported in Time magazine.

The gist of the official investigation was that the weather warning for the day had omitted the crucial word “thunderstorm”, and the Ed Hillary guides on the school trip had been unaware of previous deaths in the gorge – including one of the centre’s own instructors in 1977 – because institutional memory had been lost:

“All elements of the April 15 tragedy were foreseeable. In fact, there may be parallels between each of the contributing factors to the April 15 incident and some prior incidents in OPC files. The knowledge that may have prevented the April 15 tragedy that could having learned from previous incidents spread when staff left the organization.”

The Hillary Center was prosecuted and fined $480,000 for its negligence.

More recently, predictability has been at the center of blame for the Whakaari/White Island tragedy and, more recently, the Whangarei Boys High drowning on a caving trip during a rainstorm.

Then, on 13/14 February 2023, ex-tropical cyclone Gabrielle swept across Hawke’s Bay, killing 11 people including a young child.

While climate change activists, politicians and NIWA were quick to exploit the tragedy as a climate change superstorm punishing New Zealand for CO sin, some, such as investigative journalist Ian Wishart, questioned that narrative, saying NIWA had “lost” records of much larger historical storms which – if they had been included – would have given a more accurate estimate of the risk.

Back in March 2023, Wishart wrote:

“An NIWA database that claims to document major historical climate events for journalists and researchers has no records of most of New Zealand’s biggest historic storms… Media and politicians rely on NIWA briefings and resources, including its searchable catalog of historical weather events which provides quick access to information about “big” storms in the past.Want to know about big storms in Eskdalen?

“Besides, and this is the elephant in the climate change room, most of New Zealand’s biggest storms between 1868 and 1890 (a random period chosen to examine) are actually not there. And if most of the major events of the 19th century are not there , what about the 20th century?

“Why is this critically important? It is fundamental to ‘trusting the science’ because public and political faith demands that science maintain complete and reliable records. Failure to properly data mine historical storm records and upload them means that the public, politicians, insurance companies, banks and even the news media are being misinformed…”

Wishart was right

Wishart’s warning proved to be on the money. A couple of weeks ago, the report of the independent review of the Cyclone Gabrielle flooding in Hawke’s Bay found that major historical flooding events had been missed in NIWA’s climate risk advice to the local regional council, with the result that council planners did not realize how serious flooding in the region could be. Flood protection systems were easily overwhelmed, 100,000 people were at risk with no evacuation plan and, as mentioned, 11 people died.

NIWA has so far refused to answer centralist questions about the Gabrielle flood report, choosing instead to have its minister Judith Collins respond. The problem is that the response was an ultimately false claim arguing semantics about which of its two databases NIWA uses for climate research.

As it turns out, we report in our main article that the assurances NIWA gave Collins (and which she published under her own name) are false. That alone is reason for the Minister to take action against NIWA in our view, but it’s like getting Al Capone on tax.

Our message to Judith Collins is simple:

You didn’t cause this problem, you inherited it. But it is now in your power to do something about it.

August 11, 2024, Auckland, New Zealand (published by Centrist)
By Ian Wishart

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