MORGAN, Minn. – Minnesota farmers could smile about cooler weather as Minnesota Farmfest kicked off Tuesday, Aug. 6, though they had little to smile about about their marketing opportunities amid what has been a significant decline in 2024 grain prices.

The negative tone could be felt by CHS grain originator Patti Uhrich, who joked that her title would be more accurate as “therapist” after the rosier marketing conditions of 2023. She tries to guide producers through these difficult marketing decisions daily in her work.

“It’s tough. It’s tough for you, it’s tough for us,” Uhrich said.

Farmfest ran from Tuesday to Thursday at the Gilfillan Estate southeast of Redwood Falls. The fair uses 50 hectares of land to showcase products, services and technologies from over 500 exhibitors and suppliers. Farmfest traditionally features panels and debates on agricultural policy and political races.

FAMILY: Tim Walz pictured as Rural Champion at Farmfest by Heidi Heitkamp and Peggy Flanagan

Uhrich offered some marketing tips including having a marketing plan and sticking to that plan. She told us that communication is the key between buyers and sellers. She suggested that producers take every price increase as an opportunity to sell.

“Suck it up and sell,” Ulrich said bluntly to a question about those holding on to 2023 unpriced grains. “I hate to say it, but let it go.”

Some producers may have to sell well below their expectations and below production costs.

“If we see a cash price that’s above breakeven or is profitable, we have to take advantage of that,” Uhrich said. “And your risk is low. You know what you’re going to get.”

A question from the audience was whether prices had bottomed out. Uhrich said seasonally that would be the case. She was hopeful they had.

“Is it low in? We can all hope so,” says Uhrich.

But with prospects for excellent crops across much of the Corn Belt, including estimates of 300 bushels of corn in Illinois, it doesn’t look like supply will be diminishing very soon.

“We have a large supply and we don’t have that much demand. I don’t know if the flame is in there, she said.

According to a chart Uhrich showed, seasonally, this would be the bottom of time prices.

Safety in safety nets

This year is one where producers will likely lean into crop insurance for support as many see moisture damage and reduced prices. It was raised time and time again among producers that crop insurance must remain strong or be stronger as they look toward a new farm bill.

Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, said support for crop insurance would be critical for farmers like him where he farms in Wells. He said growing conditions were the worst they’ve been in 25 years due to excessive moisture. It will be a year where marketing decisions will be tough for those with remaining shares.

“We are well below cost of production in most cases,” Johnson said. He said various marketers are trying to help get grain sold, but he sees plenty of grain left in storage as the next harvest approaches.

Poor growth in Minnesota isn’t putting enough pressure on the market to cause a significant price increase, yet. Farmfest organizer and moderator Kent Thiesse asked Uhrich if she thought the estimated 181.3 bushels per acre for Minnesota was realistic given the poor growing conditions in southern Minnesota.

“I really don’t think that’s realistic,” she said. She felt growing problems went far beyond Minnesota this year.

If yield estimates are cut, it’s unlikely to be seen until the USDA’s January report, Uhrich explained.